Lab 12

Numerical Weather Prediction

Record your observations and interpretations on the log sheet (pdf).  The lab instructions are online at Canvas, but they are repeated here for redundancy.

Navigate to the National Weather Service's Model Analyses and Guidance page.  Select the "Model Guidance" option. This brings you to the Model Guidance page, where you can access numerical weather predictions from a variety of models.  There, you

1. select a model, then
2. the region for which you want to see a forecast graphic, then
3. the particular prediction, then
4. the time. (Sometimes "loop all" is an option for animation.  If you choose this, wait for all the images to load before you try to follow along.)  Once you are viewing a graphic, the "next" button allows you to see the graphic for the next forecast time.

Once you are viewing a graphic, clicking the "product description" button brings up an explanation of what you are looking at.

Deterministic Models

Pick two models from NAM, GFS, and HRRR that cover a forecast area that interests you. Follow the forecasts of these two models and describe the forecasts on your log sheet.

Ensemble Models

Look at the GEFS and SREF models. If they cover the same forecast area as you looked at with the deterministic models, look at that region. Examine available displays, such as spaghetti plots and ranges. On your log sheet, describe the forecast time for which the models mostly were in agreement. Was there a time that the different strands began to diverge greatly? Did different weather variables (temperature, wind, humidity, precipitation) diverge at different times?

Caribou Forecast

Go to the site for the Caribou Forecast Office. Hover over "Forecasts" and select "Forecasters' Discussion" from the pop-up menu. See if you can find any indication in the forecasters' discussion that they used numerical forecasts in their predictions.

Scoring

• Deterministic models 10 points
• Ensemble Models 10 points
• Caribou forecast 5 points